What is the market size of smart door locks?

1、 Scale of the Chinese market (core authoritative data, 2025-2026)
1) Sales scale (omni channel retail)
2025: 19.51 million sets (Aowei Cloud Network, year-on-year -3.9%); Luotu Technology has a caliber of 17.81 million sets (year-on-year+2.0%)
By 2026 (forecast): Aowei Cloud Network expects 19.55 million sets (a slight increase of 0.2%); Luotu expects 17.27 million sets (a slight decrease of 2.9%)
Penetration rate: about 40% -45% by 2025, replacing existing stocks with core growth drivers
2) Retail sales (market value, the most critical measure)
2025: 21.2 billion yuan (Aowei Cloud Network, year-on-year+1.5%, with an increase in volume decline and structural upgrading)
2026 (forecast): 22.2 billion yuan (Ove Cloud Network, year-on-year+4.9%); IResearch/Hardware Association estimates a budget of 21 billion yuan+
Average price: Approximately 1087 yuan/set by 2025, with a continuous increase in the proportion of high-end (2000+) products, driving overall value growth
3) History and Trends
2015-2024: Compound growth rate of 24.6%, increasing from 2 million sets to 17.47 million sets, entering the stage of stock replacement and low-speed high-quality growth
Core features: C-end accounts for more than B-end, online accounts for over 55%, AI/facial recognition/palm vein high-end drives value growth
2、 Global market size (2025)
Mainstream caliber: 21.2 billion US dollars (approximately 150 billion RMB) (Global Market Insights)
Other institutions: Baijian Strategy $10.458 billion, Mordor $3.72 billion (statistical caliber difference: whether including commercial/engineering/non door lock intelligent locks)
The Asia Pacific region (mainly China) is the largest regional market, accounting for * * 40%+* * of the global market share
3、 Caliber description (to avoid confusion)
Sales volume: divided into retail C-end, engineering B-end, and export, with different institutions having different statistical scopes and data differences
Retail sales: only includes domestic terminal retail sales, excluding upstream components, engineering procurement, and exports
Total industry output value (including the entire industry chain): approximately 30-35 billion yuan by 2025