2026 intelligent door lock forecast: scale exceeds 21 billion, high-end acceleration

1、 Core Scale Prediction (Aowei Cloud Network/Luotu/Industry Consensus)
2025 base: Omnichannel retail sales of 18.5 billion yuan (Luotu), sales of 17.81 million sets (+2.0%), average price year-on-year+6.1%, entering the stage of stable volume growth and leading stock replacement
Forecast for 2026: Omnichannel retail sales will exceed 21 billion yuan (+13.5% year-on-year), with a slight increase/flat sales volume (about 18 million sets), and an average price continuing to rise (+10%+). The core will be driven by high-end products, bidding farewell to extensive scale growth and shifting towards value growth
Caliber description: For C-end retail+high-end engineering procurement, excluding commercial/export; Different institutional intervals in 210– 21.8 billion yuan, the core consensus is to break 21 billion yuan and accelerate high-end development
2、 High end acceleration: core data and product structure
Price upgrade, with a significant increase in the proportion of mid to high end products
2025:2000 yuan+38% of high-end model retail sales; Expected to rise to 45%+by 2026, 1500– 3000 yuan mid-range main force, 3000+flagship fast volume
The proportion of low-priced phones below 1000 yuan continues to shrink, and small and medium-sized white brands are accelerating their clearance. CR5 (Xiaomi/Deshmann/Kaidi Shi/Yingshi/TCL) remains stable at over 60%, with a focus on strengthening the top players
Multimodal recognition has become a high-end standard, and fingerprints have become a basic feature
3D facial lock: 43.2% of retail sales and 59.4% of retail sales by 2025; By 2026, the retail volume will be 46.5% and the retail sales will be 67%. It will be contactless, low light/mask compatible, and become a high-end mainstream
Palm vein lock: retail volume of 12.3% and retail sales of 21.1% by 2025; By 2026, the retail volume will be 18% and the retail sales will be 30%, solving the pain points of fingerprint wear and tear, wet/dirty hands, safety ceiling, and high-end must-have for the elderly
Multimodal fusion (fingerprint+face+palm vein+password): By 2026, the penetration rate of high-end models will exceed 70%, and fingerprints will be integrated from; Main force” Convert to backup plan
AI+Security Screen Integration, Value Ascends Again
10 inch large screen cat eye, AI active warning, humanoid tracking, and whole house intelligent linkage (Mi Home/HarmonyOS/HomeKit) have become standard for 2000+models. AI intelligent locks will have a retail penetration rate of 26% in 2026, with a higher proportion of retail sales
Compliance upgrade (new national standards mandate local storage, prevent small black boxes, and implement end-to-end encryption), eliminate non compliant low-priced machines, and further increase the market share of high-end compliant products
3、 Three core drivers for high-end acceleration
On the demand side: stock replacement+consumption upgrade stock housing/old mechanical locks, old smart locks enter the centralized replacement cycle (5-8 years lifespan), users can upgrade from; Can be used; Shift towards safety, convenience, and intelligent linkage, and promote contactless and highly adaptable recognition needs among the elderly/children population
Supply side: technology cost reduction+head focused 3D structured light, palm vein module cost reduction, head brands (Deshmann/Kaidi Shi/Huawei/Xiaomi) concentrate on research and development, high-end functions are quickly deployed, and mid-range can also be equipped with 3D facial/palm vein
Policy/Channel: Trade in policy+Compliance driven home appliance trade in subsidy (15% -20%) will continue until the first half of 2026 to stimulate the exchange of old locks with new ones; The new national standard raises the threshold, white cards are eliminated, and the top high-end market share is further expanded
4、 Key risks and boundaries
Short term: subsidy reduction, sluggish real estate market, online price war may suppress average price growth rate
Long term: High end is the main line of certainty, with stable volume, increased value, rising average price, and structural upgrading as the core features of 2026